A general class of nonparametric control charts

In this article, we introduce a new general class of nonparametric Shewhart‐type control charts using the lengths of runs of test sample observations between successive observations of a reference sample. Several control charts that have appeared in the literature are members of the new family. In addition, 3 new nonparametric control charts that belong to the class are introduced and studied. Numerical results depict that the proposed charts attain competitive in‐control and out‐of‐control performance as compared with existing nonparametric charts.     

基于特征贡献率的机械故障分类方法

为提高往复压缩机、航空发动机等复杂机械故障分类的准确率，依据特征参数对不同故障的敏感度存在差异的特性，提出一种狄利克雷过程混合模型(Dirichlet process mixture model,简称DPMM)与贝叶斯推断贡献(Bayesian inference contribution,简称BIC)相结合的分析方法。采用DPMM方法自学习机械振动信号高维特征的统计分布模型，并依据BIC理论计算得到各特征参数对模型的贡献率，通过对比观测数据与各类故障数据特征贡献率间的差异实现故障分类。试验结果表明，该方法的平均分类准确率比基于高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,简称GMM)的故障诊断方法的平均分类准确率提高19.29%，比基于Relief算法的故障诊断方法的平均分类准确率提高32.71%，且该方法的时效性高，泛化性能强，能够更有效地进行复杂机械故障分类。     

考虑边信息的多层贝叶斯需求预测模型

随着工业互联网经济的发展,需求的不确定性日益增大,为提高需求预测的准确性,提出一个考虑边信息的多层贝叶斯需求预测模型(DFSI)。DFSI模型通过构造隐层的网络结构以实现对客户需求更加精确的刻画,该隐层结构主要包含两组参数:一组用于描述客户需求在时间上固有的连续性特征,另一组则用于融合相关的边信息特征。进一步,以贝叶斯推断为理论基础,以最大化后验概率为目标,推导出了DFSI的优化目标,并基于梯度下降方法设计了相应的求解算法。使用京东商城及某制造企业的真实销售数据对提出的模型进行了检验。结果显示,与常用的需求预测模型相比,DFSI能获得更好的预测结果。     

Bayesian data analysis to quantify the uncertainty of intact rock strength

One of the main difficulties in the geotechnical design process lies in dealing with uncertainty. Uncertainty is associated with natural variation of properties, and the imprecision and unpredictability caused by insufficient information on parameters or models. Probabilistic methods are normally used to quantify uncertainty. However, the frequentist approach commonly used for this purpose has some drawbacks.First, it lacks a formal framework for incorporating knowledge not represented by data. Second, it has limitations in providing a proper measure of the confidence of parameters inferred from data. The Bayesian approach offers a better framework for treating uncertainty in geotechnical design. The advantages of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification are highlighted in this paper with the Bayesian regression analysis of laboratory test data to infer the intact rock strength parameters σ_(ci) and m_i used in the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. Two case examples are used to illustrate different aspects of the Bayesian methodology and to contrast the approach with a frequentist approach represented by the nonlinear least squares(NLLS) method. The paper discusses the use of a Student's t-distribution versus a normal distribution to handle outliers, the consideration of absolute versus relative residuals, and the comparison of quality of fitting results based on standard errors and Bayes factors. Uncertainty quantification with confidence and prediction intervals of the frequentist approach is compared with that based on scatter plots and bands of fitted envelopes of the Bayesian approach. Finally, the Bayesian method is extended to consider two improvements of the fitting analysis. The first is the case in which the Hoek-Brown parameter, a, is treated as a variable to improve the fitting in the triaxial region. The second is the incorporation of the uncertainty in the estimation of the direct tensile strength from Brazilian test results within the overall evaluation of the intact rock strength.     

A review of topic modeling methods

Topic modeling is a popular analytical tool for evaluating data. Numerous methods of topic modeling have been developed which consider many kinds of relationships and restrictions within datasets; however, these methods are not frequently employed. Instead many researchers gravitate to Latent Dirichlet Analysis, which although flexible and adaptive, is not always suited for modeling more complex data relationships. We present different topic modeling approaches capable of dealing with correlation between topics, the changes of topics over time, as well as the ability to handle short texts such as encountered in social media or sparse text data. We also briefly review the algorithms which are used to optimize and infer parameters in topic modeling, which is essential to producing meaningful results regardless of method. We believe this review will encourage more diversity when performing topic modeling and help determine what topic modeling method best suits the user needs.     

Application of multivariate statistics and 3D visualization analysis in tacit knowledge diffusion map

Tacit knowledge is an important factor for enterprises and institutions to enhance their knowledge innovation and value-added capabilities, and it is also a basic link to enhance organizational learning capabilities. With the development of technology, the dissemination of tacit knowledge has increasingly shown complex and dynamic trends. In order to make the tacit knowledge in the enterprise better circulate and generate greater economic value, therefore, this paper proposes a study on the diffusion map of tacit knowledge based on multivariate statistics and 3D visualization analysis. First of all, this paper analyzes the internal relationship between organizational learning and organizational tacit knowledge integration and organizational tacit knowledge innovation, and combines multiple statistical methods to propose an organizational tacit knowledge integration method based on tacit knowledge management. Secondly, we combine 3D visualization and generative confrontation network methods to analyze the data of tacit knowledge dissemination, and visualize the distribution of knowledge dissemination in three dimensions. In the simulation experiment test, this paper reveals that the spreading efficiency of tacit knowledge in the network is affected by related factors. Through this model, we hope to explore the behavioral laws of different types of nodes in the network and propose effective countermeasures to improve the efficiency of knowledge dissemination.     

Distribution-free double-sampling precedence monitoring scheme to detect unknown shifts in the location parameter

In most applications, parametric monitoring schemes are used to monitor the majority of industrial and nonindustrial processes in order to improve the quality of the outputs or services. However, parametric monitoring schemes are known to underperform when the normality assumption is not met or when there is not enough information about the symmetry or asymmetry nature of the process underlying distribution. Hence, in this paper, a new nonparametric Phase II Shewhart-type double-sampling (DS) monitoring scheme based on the precedence statistic is proposed in order to efficiently monitor quality processes when the underlying process distribution departs from normality. The performance is investigated using the average run length (ARL), standard deviation of the run length (SDRL), expected ARL (EARL) and expected average number of observations to signal (EANOS), and the average sample sizes (ASS) metrics. The latter metrics are computed using Monte Carlo simulation and exact formulae. In general, it is shown that the new DS precedence scheme outperforms the existing basic Shewhart precedence scheme with and without supplementary runs rules in many situations. A real-life illustrative example based on a filling process of milk bottles is provided to demonstrate the application and implementation of the new DS precedence monitoring scheme.     

Fault detection in dynamic systems by a Fuzzy/Bayesian network formulation

In this paper the fault detection problem is solved using an alternative methodology based on a fuzzy/Bayesian strategy combining a Bayesian network and the fuzzy set theory. The new important issue in this proposed methodology is to address uncertainties in the input of the Bayesian Network. This contribution is possible since the fuzzy set theory is used as the knowledge representation. To illustrate the technique, the fault detection problem in induction machine stator-winding is considered. Specifically, the faults in the induction machine stator-winding are detected by a state change of stator current. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the advance of the proposed methodology when compared to standard Bayesian network.